FALTER – book review

Climate crisis: No fossil fuels, no raw materials – and yet the economy can still grow. Leading climate researcher Anders Levermann is convinced that this is possible.

Are we already living in a climate catastrophe? No, says Anders Levermann. Do we have to say goodbye to growth because of the climate crisis? He says a decisive no to this as well. Anders Levermann is one of Europe’s leading climate researchers. The 50-year-old heads the Complexity Research Department at the influential Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. He has been a co-author of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for 20 years and advises business and politics.

If anyone is now thinking, ‘I told you so! These climate alarmists are exaggerating,’ they will be sorely disappointed. Levermann also explains that if we continue as we are, things will get much, much worse than they are today. One extreme weather event will follow another: droughts, floods, hurricanes. Humanity will no longer be able to cope with all of this. The extremes could hit ‘all the breadbaskets of the world’ at once and jeopardise the Earth’s food supply. The physicist believes that democracies will also begin to falter once temperatures rise by two degrees or more. He is therefore calling for zero emissions, and soon. Coal, oil and gas must remain in the ground, and this must be enforced with strict bans. But don’t worry, Levermann says at the same time: the economy can still continue to grow! This is made possible by the mathematical principle of convolution.

Anders Levermann is calling for radical changes that are likely to take many people’s breath away. He is not one for half measures; he is aiming for the really big picture. He wants to tackle not only the climate crisis, but also species extinction. Once all emissions have been eliminated, the extraction of raw materials must also stop – in future, we should only use what can be regrown or recycled from what already exists.

Right at the outset, he makes it clear why zero emissions are ‘unfortunately non-negotiable’. Even if humanity were to accept a dramatic increase of four degrees or more, it would still have to stop emitting at some point: as long as CO2 enters the atmosphere, the Earth will continue to heat up. “To put it bluntly, it is the dinosaurs and their food that we are now digging up and burning again. In doing so, we are driving the Earth into a heat that has not prevailed on the planet since the dinosaurs.” If we were to burn all the oil, gas and coal found to date, we would heat up the Earth by 15 degrees.

When he calls for ‘zero emissions’ in front of business and industry representatives, Levermann says, they can certainly relate to that. Zero does not mean doing something a little less, but doing everything differently. And the economy can work with that, ‘because “different” means innovation, means progress.’

When asked how this can be reconciled with growth, he brings the principle of folding into play: this occurs when a limit is set on a system. It then seeks new paths below the limit and grows into diversity instead. Like the Amazon rainforest, which could not simply expand – instead, the animals and plants in the limited space have produced infinite diversity. Or a flock of birds: ‘It cannot fall into the ocean or fly into the airless void of space, but between these natural limits there is infinite freedom.’

The same will happen to humanity when it reaches the absolute limit of zero emissions. Then the path on which society finds itself must ‘fold back’ into finite space – and will always find new ways to improve life here.

In practical terms, this means not banning flying, but only CO2 emissions. The search for alternatives, indeed for the best solutions in general, can confidently be left to the economy and society (‘the best search engine in the world’). Folding means the opposite of a planned strategy and also the opposite of a planned economy.

Levermann is convinced that zero emissions will be possible in the not too distant future. Soon, the entire energy supply will be able to be fed from renewables.

The book shows how long and deeply the author has been dealing with these issues, that he has also been examining their economic aspects for ten years and has honed his arguments in many debates.

The author anticipates objections. In the case of the energy transition, for example, the main concern is that the supply will collapse because the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow. The trick, he argues, is for large regions to form energy pacts, such as the entire European Union. This would allow low- and high-pressure systems to balance each other out.

Of course, his thesis that all these radical reforms could be implemented while maintaining growth is a hot topic of debate. Numerous economists are grappling with this issue. In her brilliantly argued book Das Ende des Kapitalismus (The End of Capitalism) (2022), Japanese philosopher Kohei Saito recently landed a bestseller for the degrowth movement with Systemsturz (System Collapse) (reviews and an interview with Herrmann can be found at www.falter.at/shop). Their central objection: infinite growth in a world with finite resources is impossible.

Levermann agrees with them – if growth is meant in the classic sense, without limits. He argues that in the not too distant future, humanity should stop extracting raw materials from nature. Industrial circles would like to dismiss this as ‘unrealistic’, but: ‘There is no harsher reality than the fact that you cannot extract materials from a finite planet indefinitely.’

Levermann argues that he nevertheless adheres to the idea of growth because it is a central driving force. It makes people get up in the morning, inspires them to develop ideas and ensures that necessary goods are provided. He believes that abandoning this principle would only be ‘morally justifiable if it were based on the firm conviction that something comparable could be put in its place’ . He does not see anything comparable. In addition, we are under enormous time pressure due to the climate crisis. So, says Levermann, let’s keep the system, but refrain from destroying nature in the future.

He sees several ways to resolve the contradiction with finite resources. For example, we could learn to make do mainly with renewable raw materials. In addition, we would have to make do with what has already been mined and used. Since the switch to renewables will actually provide more energy than is available today – ‘because the amount of solar energy is infinite’ – there will even be a surplus of electricity at times. And that could be used for recycling. The researcher also sees a great need for (intangible) services: education and childcare, health and nursing care.

However, Levermann also gives capitalism a dressing down. He understands the unease that many people feel about its current form: that performance and income often no longer have anything to do with each other, that wealth is drifting apart to the point of absurdity. He therefore proposes three further limits in addition to the two ecological ‘folding limits’ – zero emissions, zero raw material extraction: limits on company size, on the inheritance that a single person can receive, and on income disparities. If anyone thinks that this is an attempt to introduce communism through the eco back door, they need only look at the very high limits that Levermann proposes: for example, a maximum of two million euros should be allowed to be inherited by a single person. The aim is to prevent companies from becoming so large that they undermine competition and powerful mega-corporations from challenging the primacy of politics over the economy. Unrestricted capitalism, he argues, is destroying its own virtues. This must be stopped.

Wow – this is truly a comprehensive body of thought. Levermann examines his proposals from every possible angle: he has written a chapter entitled ‘Arguments for Capitalists’, one for “Communists” and one for ‘Pragmatists’. There is a great deal to learn in this book: from the basics of the climate crisis (what does not threaten us, what does threaten us) to the major debates on how to tackle it. The book is brilliantly written, featuring characters such as Hamlet and Harry Potter, and each chapter begins with a quote from a Tom Waits song.

Of course, the bold theses raise a whole host of questions. Can zero emissions really work alongside growth? What about all the copper and rare earths that we (still) need for the energy transition? Will Levermann be proven right in his hope that there is no other way to build a wind turbine?

The author also warns that government bans must be set at a very high level. No nitpicking, no unnecessary paternalism. The rest should be left to democratic processes in society. However, even the European emissions trading scheme, which Levermann sees as a positive example, is quite detailed.

But none of this is a bad thing. Levermann writes emphatically that he has no recipes; that would contradict his concept that the many people out there will find the solutions.

It is a groundbreaking climate book. Refreshing because it is optimistic and conciliatory, yet radical in the best sense of the word. Because the